Nifty Trading Strategy | Agusta Helicopter Scam to take Nifty to the gallows


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In this blog post we explore the impact of the Agusta helicopter scam on the Indian stock markets. Find out what NIfty is expected to do in the aftermath of the scam coming to light?

Augusta scam expose has the unintended consequences of damaging the economic revival

The glaring expose by the Time Now channel of the Agusta helicopter scam and the possibility of  many political bigwigs in the ruling party being involved will be a big handicap to the Finance Minister P. Chidambaram’s plans for a full blown Dalal Street ‘bulls only party’. The sad part is that this expose will bring more questions than answers and like the coal scam and other scams before it will further impact decision making at the policy level. Beaurocrats and politicians will hit the go slow button which has the unintended  consequences of damaging the economic revival and further negating fiscal consolidation.

Mind you this time the Agusta helicopter scam has fool proof evidence of bribes being paid and could crash the ruling party and its dreams for winning the 2014 elections. This is one scam the UPA would wish did not see the light of day. It has virtually opened up the Pandoras box. This could also mean lights out to the bulls party on the bourses. Probably this is the trigger that our Gann analysis of the markets Nifty Futures Sell Off to 5600 on Cards – A Technical View is discounting unconsciously.

Nifty Futures breakdown imminent

nifty-futures-february-14-2013-nifty-breakdown-imminent

Agusta helicopter scam could have untold consequences of damaging sentiment of the markets

Over the last five sessions the Nifty Futures have really held onto the 5880 – 5900 levels supported by the trend line MU. Yesterday it did try to rally but the very trendline XN which provided support the last few months, has now turned resistant and price drifted sharply away from it to 5880 where it has found support from the MU trendline and the 1×2 Gann angle plotted from G. However breakdown from these levels looks imminent and we have forecasted two short term targets based on Fibonacci retracements,  price projection techniques and use of Gann angles.

  • 5835, which is the 50% retracement level of the XY rally and also gets support from the previous bottom and gap area, and
  • 5760 – 5775 which is the 62% retracement level of the XY rally and also the target for 100% range for the trend YU projected from N. Incidently the Gann angle 1×2 drawn from the June 2012 lows also falls in this zone providing a high probability target.

Nifty Futures could crash despite strong global cues from World markets in the medium term

Currently the global markets are experiencing a strong drift upwards due to liquidity and the Asian markets are also expected to rally sharply. Despite the strong global environment for equities we could be the contrarian market given the fact that we are the second most expensive market with low earnings growth expectations amongst the BRIC nations and developed markets. (Nifty Trading Strategy | Overview of Earnings, Valuations and Fund Flows )

Trading Strategy on Nifty Futures- Continue to hold shorts recommended yesterday

We hope you had initiated shorts that we had recommended in our yesterday’s post. We had recommended on the break of 5920 and the markets ended a shade below 5900. We pat ourselves on getting the timing right as currently the market environment is very volatile and extremely difficult to trade. We are targeting 5835 and then 5760 – 5775 from current levels. In case you have bought 5900 Puts, we would suggest writing 5700 Puts during late market hours to protect against time value loss given the weekend holidays. However do not open up a ratio trade.

We would like our readers to bear in mind that the two targets provided  are only short term halts on our projection of 5600 levels of   Nifty on the downside.

What is your view on the market direction? Do you agree with us?  Share your thoughts with us via the following poll

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For daily updates on our trading view on Nifty Futures & Options  please send us an email at bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com or  SMS / WhatsApp on 9730836363. We would be more than happy to oblige our community of investors / traders.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here in are strictly for education purpose only. Before investing please make your own thorough analysis or speak to a qualified Certified Financial Planner / Advisor. We are not in any which way responsible for trading losses arising out of  trading decisions taken based on the above. 

This blog is the personal blog of Vinit Bolinjkar. The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

logo Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd
Vinit Bolinjkar
Winning Trades
| Mobile: +91- 9730836363

http://winningtrades1.com http://in.linkedin.com/in/vinitbolinjkar

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Technical Outlook of the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector December 2012


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The Indian Pharmaceutical sector has been on a roll ever since the global economy picked itself up post the 2007 mayhem.  Given the    strong fundamentals of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry and the global opportunity due to the patent cliff in the western world, listed pharmaceutical stocks have responded well and rallied substantially. While the international opportunities have been good for the bottom line, pharmaceutical stocks with a larger or significant share of the domestic  pharma market have come in for a rude shock as the implementation of the new pricing policy outline of the NPPA can sharply erode profitability. As the policy elements are still not clear, it would be premature to judge how individual companies would be affected.

With a view to having a mid journey  outlook on expected price performance of  pharmaceutical stocks,  we decided to conduct a study of the major pharmaceutical stocks using technical analysis and analyse which stocks offer the best opportunity both from a long and short point of view. The exhaustive analysis was done on 29 of the major stocks, the details of which one can obtained from the slideshow embedded below.

 

The analysis was done using weekly chart data to get a more longer term picture and some of the results we found were quite contrary to general market expectation; yet others were quite revealing of exciting investment opportunities. We could have easily summed up our analysis and provided an instant listing of our analysis and recommendations for the benefit of our blog readers, but we thought it more appropriate that the reader “visualize” our analysis as “one picture is worth more than a thousand words.”

Technical analysis is a great science for stock price forecasting, but the overall investment decision can be more solid  if backed by  hard core fundamental study.  In part 2 of the Indian Pharmaceutical Outlook, we would be providing extremely high quality fundamental evaluation on the fortunes of these very 29 stocks so that our faithful blog readers can make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis.

As with all the content on this blog, the report will be provided FREE. However in order to make a point of the exclusivity of the content, we request blog readers to send us an email so that we could deliver it directly in your email inbox. This we request so that we could obtain your feedback on the same report so that we can improve on the content.  We would also like to solicit your opinion on the type of content that readers find interesting so that future blog posts could be based more on reader interest rather than just what we think you should read.

request for indian pharma sector fundamental outlook

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So please drop us an email at bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com in case you would like to receive the report.

Hope you enjoy reading the Technical Outlook of the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector December 2012 as much as I enjoyed creating it.  So tell us which is your favourite pharma stock.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

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Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd
Vinit Bolinjkar
Winning Trades
Tel: | Mobile: +91- 9730836363

http://winningtrades1.com

http://in.linkedin.com/in/vinitbolinjkar

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