Find Out Where Silver Prices are Headed in 2013


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Which way is silver headed in 2013?  Silver prices since  mid 2011 have been tightly clasped in a broad band between $37 on the upside and $26 on the downside. While the initial oscillations had been large, off late the movement without giving clues to direction is oscillating in a narrow range of $35- $29. While the price movement has been directionless, we thought that before undertaking an analysis of the fundamentals we should undertake a quick  technical analysis of the spot silver prices to spot for clues of the likely future movement.

Silver Technicals not giving clues to market direction

Silver Update January 3, 2012

Silver saddled between $29 and $33

The downward sloping trend line from the recent $50 high was challenged at $35. At $35 silver made a 5th lower top and then retraced back below the $30 level. While the markets have reversed form there and moved up marginally, only a closing above $33 will be bullish for the stock. Once $33 is taken out then we would be watching the level of $35, which if Silver can surpass, then we would be in for a very explosive rally. However the move could take time and Jupiter in Taurus sign (sidereal) can be quite painful and the pain could last until May.

What is encouraging about the previous down move is that on a lower time scale silver has done a flat pattern formation (similar to gold) and taken support at the 61.8% retracement of the previous rally from $26 to $35. One eminent Technical Analyst, Alf Fields expects that the recent take down of the precious metals clearly indicates that the correction is almost over and prices should now start storming on their way up. [Link]

Caveat: If silver breaks $29 then the upside is under threat and then $26 would be our next support level. Until then we maintain our bullish bias.

Meanwhile Fundamental factor predict the tug war to continue

The global economic price drivers  are virtually intact -.

  • Silver Coin sales and ETF investment remains at an extremely high level
  • Central Banks  continue to be buyers of  gold at all price points
  • Asians continue to be big buyers of precious metals, gold and silver,.In particular China is rumoured to be a very aggressive buyer of Gold to augment its reserves. Once this is made “official” the prices of gold would only go through the roof and silver is expected to follow it in sentiment
  • On the supply side, the underground reserves are good for only about 8 -10 years.
  • New resource finds are trailing requirements
  • Above ground reserves have virtually dried up. Its only time before the demand supply equation breaks up and the shortages loom to raise the prices of silver.
  • The mindless printing of money by global Central Banks to counter the economic turmoil is almost certainly going to cause rapidly rising inflation; which is a big positive for precious metals.
  • The recent fiscal cliff resolve is not expected to lead to any budget cuts and the Feds dollar for debt program is expected to lead to enhancing debt by nearly $ 4 tr.

Despite the relative bullish background for the long term price of silver certain events which have taken place in recent time could keep the lid on the price of silver.

  • India, which is a major buyer of gold along with China, is expected to reign in gold imports through increasing duties and imposing restrictions on import quantities. These restrictions are being applied to shore up precious foreign exchange and curb the countries widening fiscal deficit. This could lower demand for gold and ease demand supply pressures and lower gold prices. This in turn would affect the price of silver as both are closely related. 
  • Demand for silver from the solar photovoltaic industry was much lower than anticipated in 2012. With increasing prices of silver, the solar cells industry cut back on the usage of solar paste leading to a fall in silver consumption to 40 mn oz from the previous year’s record breaking 60 mn oz. Although the solar cells industry is expected to grow at 10%, it remains to be seen how much the industry scales back on silver consumption. With no substitute for silver, it is not expected to decline much. However growth would be slower than anticipated previously.

Considering all the above we believe that prices would continue to remain directionless and hence Silver technicals should be  the first indication for future price direction. We would be mildly bullish on the event prices break $33 on the upside and go short should $29 be violated on the downside decisively.

So where do you think the price of silver is headed ? Let us know what you think.

Before investing please make your own thorough analysis or speak to a qualified Certified Financial Planner / Advisor. Also read the disclaimer below.

Disclaimer: This blog is the personal blog of Vinit Bolinjkar. The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

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Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd
Vinit Bolinjkar
Winning Trades
Tel: | Mobile: +91- 9730836363

http://winningtrades1.com

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Return of QE provides low risk buying opportunities in Gold and Silver


Impending QE makes gold and silver a low risk high return buying opportunity

Big 4 Central Banks lining up for QE at their policy meetings

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With the Central Banks already having added $6 tr in money printing, they are set to print for even more more years given the lackadaisical state of Euroland and US purchasing power which is threatening to blow off. Everyone is looking back to the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank , Bank of England and Bank of Japan to stabilize the situation once more. And more quantitative easing is definitely up for grabs as it gets back on the agenda for all their upcoming policy meetings. This provides us with low risk entry into the precious metals markets.

If QE is delayed any further then the world will be stuck with a wave of banking holidays starting with the top 9 Banks in the United States through the plunging OTC derivatives contracts

This clearly means that money printing is very positive for both gold and silver.

Get gold and protect yourself

If you want to leverage off gold try silver

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

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Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd

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It’s your gold stupid, that they are after !!!


In the small print of the new Greek deal lies a heavy penalty clause wherein Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize all of its 111 tonnes of the gold reserves. This Greek gold seizure is merely a dry run for the seizure of gold from the other countries that are in trouble – Portugal (382.5 t), Spain (281.6 t), France (2,435.4 t) and Italy (2,451.8 t). Meanwhile, Iran and Sudan are using their gold to buy food for their countrymen as nothing else will pay for it. Soon it would be the countries of India and China which would have to part with their gold if the time comes when OPEC refuses payments in any other form. A few months ago there were some press reports that said that EU finance ministers discussed the possibility of the ECB gaining control over the gold reserves of member nations.

Private gold confiscation just round the corner ?
So now we know what the Arab spring, Libya and all these skirmishes are about. And each passing event brings to light the severe, pathologically sick nature of the illuminati to enforce the NWO (new world order) and its devious plans. It’s your gold stupid, that they are after! And if you don’t shore up your reserves then the toilet fiat would not even serve wiping your behind with, as it would be all electronic money – binary numbers with value diminishing at the speed of light. If the central gold could be plundered in this fashion, then what stops these psychopaths from confiscating privately held gold – as Roosevelt did in 1935?

Emulate Hugo Chavez, Out with Buffet
Hugo Chavez is a visionary and his move to repatriate Venezuelan gold from vaults outside the homeland was far ahead of all. IMHO, the Greek seizure of their gold will lead to rapid repatriation of Gold back to home shores, à la Hugo movement which would be rapid and voluminous. Germany will notably be the mother of all repatriators as it empties the FED vaults.

About time that the hoax US gold reserves stand exposed; US Dollar to toilet paper
The sorry state of affairs at the ISDA to protect the interests of the bankers who pedaled insurance against sovereign debt will only lead to more money printing which will inadvertently cause currency induced cost push inflation leading to extreme price inflation. As debt implodes, so will the dollar and will bring to re-surge the commodities as the alternate currency, as each country will avoid the US Dollar like the plague. Here is where the US would stand exposed – naked to the world – as its questionable and unaudited gold reserves would be demanded that they be counted.

Ides of March to expose cracks in the global financial system
This would be the first crack for the international monetary system and while IMF as the banker of last resort would try to stitch up the fabric, would it be in time? Im sure not! But there is certainty that ITS ABOUT TIME THAT GOLD WENT BALLISTIC and rose in geometric proportions. 7 to 20 times current prices is what I expect considering the current levels of monetary stimulus, with significant upside risks in case the bankers get manic depressive and go berserk at the money presses.

Gold price rise is an eventual outcome
The date to watch out for is March 12, 2012 when the crucification starts with oil going ballistic, gold intraday volatility jumping and shrapnelling the shorts. Already the gold price in Japanese yen is hitting all time highs and signalling that gold prices are going to runaway against all currencies; notably the USD. Keep those gold holdings close to your chest.

Gold price in Yen

Gold breakout in Japanese yen

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Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd

Tel: | Mobile: 0 9730836363

http://winingtrades1.wordpress.com

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