Nifty Trading Strategy | After Post Budget Carnage Watch Out for Crucial 5650 Level


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Nifty Futures, post budget presentation of the Finance Minister experienced one of the biggest crashes in recent times. However to us this fall was not unexpected and if you had been reading our previous post we did expect the markets to come down to 5600 levels. After the huge fall all the perma-bulls have been frozen and  bears are sniffing around having tasted fresh blood after many months. However, we have reason to believe that the markets may find support around the 5650 levels and this is going to be a very strong barrier for the bears to overcome before further bear hammering could be initiated.

Technical factors indicate strong support levels around the 5650 levels

If one were to take a look at the chart below its almost magical how the Nifty Futures fall was arrested at the confluence of a number of trend lines, technical patterns and fibonacci retracement levels. Of course this analysis is only in hindsight but the evidence of support is amazingly copy book style.

Nifty-futures-march-4-2013-short-term-support-at-5650

Multiple support levels arrest fall in Nifty Futures

  • Downward sloping Xx trendline
  • Upward sloping trendline Yy
  • The horizontal trend line C drawn from the previous top of 5700(not shown in chart)
  • The parallel channel line MT
  • 5848 is a 33% retracement of the entire rally from the 4700 levels 9again not shown in the chart)
  • And the lower parallel (to the major thick black trendline) passing through T
  • Head and shoulder target shown by the pink arrows

All these together have created a strong energy point around the lows and only if markets are able to sell off below these levels then a further fall would emanate.

Our proprietary short term oscillators are also indicating oversold conditions and the markets should put in a bounce or at least meander till Monday March 11, 2013 which is our energy cycle point for converting price to time. (Please note the vertical blue lines they were draw on the day of the fall and projected backwards in time to test the cycle and it has a margin of error of only 1 day for pin pointing the cycle high and lows !)

If the markets react upwards how will the trend unfold ?

So from all the above we can conclude that markets could recoil until the next energy date which is March 11. As long as the price stays within the channel and does not rally out of the N-O trend line, markets can safely be assumed to be in a downtrend. However if prices were to break this trend line then Nifty Futures has potential to travel to the parallel line drawn from P. Further price should also stay below the  50% retracement level which comes around  5850 levels. In case the rally has legs it could also travel all the way towards the 62% level of 5900.

We will explore this trend projection further in our future posts.

What if the markets were to continue the bear market without correcting upwards.

It is true that we are in a vicious downtrend and going by the price damage that we have seen in the broader market it is quite likely that further down side cannot be ruled out. In fact in one of our previous post we had maintained that prices could go as low as 5500 before end of February.

While our time target was not achieved we still believe, based on Elliot Wave Theory, a terminal impulse is in the offing and should retrace all the way below 5500 latest by March 6, 2013. This scenario is still open and on the break of 5650 we could experience a free fall to 5550 levels. This would mean two days of triple digit losses. Lets see how the next couple of days play out.

What is going to be our trading strategy on Nifty Futures

Since the overall trend is down, we would refrain from buying any calls. Our strategy in case the up move plays out is to write  5900 calls. In case markets break below 5650 then we would initiate a bear put spread by buying 5600 puts and writing 5500 puts.

The spread could be initiated in a staggered manner. So if the markets start selling off, buy the 5600 put and when , if you monitor intraday hourly charts, markets look oversold initiate the put writing for 5500.

Globally along with other BRIC nations, the Indian market was the ugly duckling with the most losses

Despite continued heavy buying by FIIs and successful completion of many IPOs, the broader market has suffered heavy losses and since February 13, 2013 Nifty Futures have fallen very sharply

world-markets-total-returns-chart-march-4-2013

Nifty Futures one of the worst performing global markets

Despite the heavy losses we continue to be one of the most expensive markets

global-market-2-year-earnings-growth-versus-2-year-forward-pe

Nifty valuations in comparison to global continue to remain expensive despite deep cuts

Fundamental expectations fro the market also stand lowered post budget

Analyst consensus earnings estimates on Nifty have also been marginally lowered to 383 (earlier 380) and  435 (440) for CY13 and CY14 respectively.

nifty-earnings-growth-revised-downwards

Nifty earnings revised downwards post budget

nifty-1-year-forward-pe-bands

Nifty fails at mean P/E level could test lower band in the medium term

The 1 Year Forward P/E chart shows that Nifty has a tendency to move from one band to another and the green band of 12.6 FY13 earnings would suggest a Nifty Futures price of 4825. While the number is difficult to digest, who would have thought in the begining of February, when the markets were at 6100 odd levels and bulls were cheering for 6500 – 7000 levels, that the markets would reverse on a dime. We at Winning Trades were the few who successfully forecasted this sell off. In fact we have further bear designs on the future of price of Nifty which we will explore through our blog posts. Stay tuned

What is your view on the market direction? Do you expect the sell off  to continue or you expect consolidation around  present levels? We would love to hear your opinion on the same.

If you enjoyed reading this post  click this to tweet —–> Awesome blogpost!

For daily updates on our trading view on Nifty Futures & Options  please send us an email at bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com or  SMS / WhatsApp on 9730836363. We would be more than happy to oblige our community of investors / traders.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here in are strictly for education purpose only. Before investing please make your own thorough analysis or speak to a qualified Certified Financial Planner / Advisor. We are not in any which way responsible for trading losses arising out of  trading decisions taken based on the above. 

This blog is the personal blog of Vinit Bolinjkar. The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

logo Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd
Vinit Bolinjkar
Winning Trades
| Mobile: +91- 9730836363

http://winningtrades1.com http://in.linkedin.com/in/vinitbolinjkar

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Low risk high return stock idea | Zenith Fibres Ltd


Yet another low risk high return investment idea from our beloved Kukkuji is Zenith Fibres Ltd.  Zenith Fibres is not only doing well, but its ultra-low cost expansion along with its compelling valuations and 12 year dividend track paying record make it a compelling buy.

In this video interview Kukkuji explains his rationale for being bullish on the stock. For the benefit of our viewers the rationale is enumerated below the video.



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What makes Zenith Fibres Ltd a screaming BUY?

  • Zenith Fibres Ltd (ZFL) has undertaken a very opportunistic expansion in its propylene business by buying out a manufacturing plant from the crisis ridden Europe at a throw away price of Rs 2 crore. On this paltry investment of Rs 2 crore ZFL is expected to achieve a turnover of Rs 50 crore on an annual basis. The capacity is expected to kick start anytime soon.
  • Even without the expansion ZFL had achieved a ~100% yoy growth in net profit for the Q1FY13. The EPS for Q1FY13 works out to Rs 3 and with the added capacity it expects to achieve an EPS of 13-14 per share for the full year FY13. At the CMP of 36 this works out to a  PE of a little less than 3 – clearly indicating that the stock is going extremely cheap.
  • The Book value of the stock is around Rs 46 and hence the stock is available at a significant discount to book signifying low downside risk.
  • ZFL has a dividend paying track record of more than 12 years. Last year ie in FY12 the dividend was upped from 15% to 20%. Considering the rosy prospects and cash balance of RS 14-15 crores and the stock having a market cap of merely Rs 18 crores, there is every chance of the ZFL management increasing dividend payout in the future.
  • Further the stock has a very high ROCE >25% coupled with a very high replacement cost.

This heady concoction of strong fundamentals, attractive performance parameters, compelling valuations and strong dividend policy  clearly makes this stock an undervalued low risk high gain investment pick.

More information on Zenith Fibre can be obtained from its website.

Disclosure: Kukkuji  holds all the stocks mentioned in the video interview.

A brief video introduction of Kukkuji.

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Kukkuji has done several video interviews with Winning Trades | Low risk trading strategies for the Indian markets in the recent past.

  1. Four Principles of Stock Selection: Video interview of Kukkuji
  2. Video interview: Kukkuji of ISG offers 3 low risk high return investment ideas

More interesting reading from Winning Trades

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

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Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd
Tel: | Mobile: 0 9730836363

http://winningtrades1.com

http://in.linkedin.com/in/vinitbolinjkar

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Four Principles of Stock Selection: Video interview of Kukkuji


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Kukkuji in his previous interview had spoken about some low risk high yielding investment ideas on small capitalization stocks). In today’s interview he provides updates on the same recommendations ( viz: Balaji Amines, Hind Rectifiers and NESCO).

In addition he outlines his Four Principles of Stock Selection which are a must see for investors as there is a lot of learning to be derived from this video.  A brief write up on the contents of the interview is included for the benefit of those who have difficulty with viewing videos.

In the interview he recommend’s booking partial profit in Balaji Amines and converting those profits into Hind Rectifiers and NESCO. Hind Rectifiers is expected to be a big beneficiary of the Railway modernization plans. Nesco which has been consolidating for a long time is his favourite pick and recommends to hold onto the stock.

His Four Principles of Stock picking are as follows

  1. Strong fundamentals are the most important
  2. Stock should have a good dividend paying track record and if the dividend yield is attractive it is an added bonus.
  3. The ROCE of the stock should be greater than 20-25% and he finds that when markets turn these stocks have a high propensity of providing unusually high returns.
  4. Replacement cost is another important criteria. If the replacement cost is high then this along with good dividend yield and book value which is at a discount to market price is a lethal combinations.

As per his opinion the stock that meets the Four Principle of Stock Selection  criteria is PTC (India) Financial Services Ltd.  At CMP of Rs 16 the stock is an attractive low risk high return investment opportunity. The attractive criteria for the stock are as follows

  • No NPAs
  • FY12 EPS of Rs 2.75 per share
  • Q1FY13 disbursals are around Rs 458 crores which is exceptional considering that during the entire FY12 the disbursals were ~ Rs 658 crore. Full year FY13 , PTC Financials expects to do about RS 1600 crore of disbursals.
  • It has current commitment for Rs 7,700 crore of disbursals
  • The NIM is also very strong at ~9%.
  • Maiden dividend possibility is an added attraction.

Disclosure: Kukkuji  holds all the stocks mentioned in the video interview.

Brief Profile of Kukkuji

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Kukkuji is a veteran investor who has built up an enviable portfolio investing in low capitalization stocks. He runs a internet group by the name of Investment Super growth which has close to 10,000 subscribers. Currently he is retired and spends most of his time travelling and researching on Indian stocks.

More interesting reading from Winning Trades

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.

logo
Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd
Tel: | Mobile: 0 9730836363

http://winningtrades1.com

http://in.linkedin.com/in/vinitbolinjkar

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