The Indian Pharmaceutical sector has been on a roll ever since the global economy picked itself up post the 2007 mayhem. Given the strong fundamentals of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry and the global opportunity due to the patent cliff in the western world, listed pharmaceutical stocks have responded well and rallied substantially. While the international opportunities have been good for the bottom line, pharmaceutical stocks with a larger or significant share of the domestic pharma market have come in for a rude shock as the implementation of the new pricing policy outline of the NPPA can sharply erode profitability. As the policy elements are still not clear, it would be premature to judge how individual companies would be affected.
With a view to having a mid journey outlook on expected price performance of pharmaceutical stocks, we decided to conduct a study of the major pharmaceutical stocks using technical analysis and analyse which stocks offer the best opportunity both from a long and short point of view. The exhaustive analysis was done on 29 of the major stocks, the details of which one can obtained from the slideshow embedded below.
The analysis was done using weekly chart data to get a more longer term picture and some of the results we found were quite contrary to general market expectation; yet others were quite revealing of exciting investment opportunities. We could have easily summed up our analysis and provided an instant listing of our analysis and recommendations for the benefit of our blog readers, but we thought it more appropriate that the reader “visualize” our analysis as “one picture is worth more than a thousand words.”
Technical analysis is a great science for stock price forecasting, but the overall investment decision can be more solid if backed by hard core fundamental study. In part 2 of the Indian Pharmaceutical Outlook, we would be providing extremely high quality fundamental evaluation on the fortunes of these very 29 stocks so that our faithful blog readers can make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis.
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Hope you enjoy reading the Technical Outlook of the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector December 2012 as much as I enjoyed creating it. So tell us which is your favourite pharma stock.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not reflect the views of my employer. This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither http://winningtrades1.com or myself accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles.
|Vinit Bolinjkar Head of Research, Ventura Securities Ltd|
- New drug pricing set to change industry (thehindu.com)